The Battle at the Bay

San Diego FC take a trip north to take on the San Jose Earthquakes (Photo courtesy: San Diego FC)

by: Alex PeñA

Matchup Overview

San Diego FC will face off against the San Jose Earthquakes for the first time in a Sunday afternoon showdown in the Bay Area. San Diego FC is currently first in the MLS Western Conference with 49 points and is tied for second in points overall in the league, just below the Philadelphia Union. San Jose holds the 9th place spot in the Western Conference, which would be the final playoff spot.

This will be a match of two teams that love to score a lot of goals. San Diego FC is ahead of San Jose with 50 goals, while the Earthquakes are second in the Western Conference with 48 goals.

San Jose's Offensive Power

The Earthquakes have a very offensive mindset on the pitch. They are second in the league in goals with 48 in the Western Conference. San Jose leads the league in xG with 49.9, and it is obvious why when they have a total of 397 shots for the season, which is second in the league, and are second with shots on target with 140. They are one of the best shot creators in the league and will try to score through a variety of ways. San Jose is currently 4th with 44 through balls and second in the league in crosses with 556. They also have the second most shot-creating actions in the league with 707. The Earthquakes often play in a 3-4-3 formation and try to control the run of play in the midfield. San Jose mostly gets their touches between the midfield and the attacking third. San Jose currently has more touches in the penalty area with 638 than San Diego does with 604 touches. Their current home record is 4-6-3.

Key Players for San Jose

One of the best shot creators in the league and the centerpiece of the Earthquakes’ offense is Cristian Espinoza. Espinoza, an Argentine, has been with San Jose since the 2019 season and has 38 goals and 65 assists for the club in all competitions. Espinoza's shot-creating actions per 90 minutes this season is 6.46, the highest it has ever been since 2019 when he first joined the league and had a 6.17 SCA90. His shot-creating actions are in the 96th percentile, while his expected assisted goals are in the 99th percentile for an attacking midfielder/winger. Espinoza loves to get a good cross into the penalty area and has made 254 crosses, which is second in the league. He also leads the league with 89 key passes.

One of the players Espinoza will be passing the ball to is Cristian Arango. The Colombian has played in MLS since 2021, first with LAFC, then went to Liga MX Pachuca for the 2022-2023 season, and returned to MLS in 2023 with Real Salt Lake. Last season was his career best with 23 goal contributions (17 goals and 6 assists) for RSL. The Earthquakes acquired Arango in January 2025. Arango is tied with the team lead in goal contributions with 11 goals and 2 assists. He is a prototypical striker who wants to take his shot whenever he gets the ball. Arango currently leads the league with 92 shots taken, just ahead of Lionel Messi with 91. His xG is 11.1, which puts him 11th in the league. The 30-year-old Arango has played over 1,800 minutes this season, which is the third most on the team. Expect to see a lot of Arango and Espinoza in this upcoming match.

San Jose's Defensive Weaknesses

While San Jose is a strong attacking team, there will be holes on the defensive side where San Diego can take advantage. The Earthquakes have allowed 45 goals this season, which puts them 7th most in the MLS. San Jose has also allowed the 4th most shots on target with 134 and is 22nd in save percentage with 67.9%.

When it comes to possession and keeping the ball, San Jose is one of the worst teams. San Jose leads the league in miscontrols with 436 and is third in dispossessions with 248. Once the opponent has the ball back, San Jose is pretty weak at challenging the opponent with the ball, as they rank 8th with 197 challenges lost this season. Another factor that may play into this match will be the referee, as San Jose has the third most yellow cards this season with 68 and is tied with the third most red cards with 4.

San Diego's Strategy

For San Diego, they are coming off a match against Sporting Kansas City where they were bombarded by shots, but the key for San Diego was that they executed better than KC. San Jose is a better finishing team than KC and will rely on a strong attack from Cristian Espinoza and Cristian Arango.

The recipe for success on Sunday afternoon for San Diego is playing their style of football, not giving the ball away in dangerous areas, and executing when chances are given. San Diego is going to need another strong performance from their backline to succeed and have their two designated players come through in the clutch in scoring goals. San Diego is a high-possession team, and playing keep-away from San Jose will be a strong factor in this match.

You can checkout Alex Peña’s substack, Chromatic FC, here. His latest piece covers the development of his connection to the San Jose Earthquakes and the development of his soccer fandom.